Showing posts with label People's Bank of China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label People's Bank of China. Show all posts

China cuts interest rates to spur growth, ease debt pressure

GNN Economic News - China cut interest rates unexpectedly on Friday, stepping up efforts to support the world's second-biggest economy as it heads toward its slowest expansion in nearly a quarter of a century, saddled under a mountain of debt.

But the central bank, keen to show it was not back-tracking on economic reforms, twinned the move with a slight liberalization of the rates banks pay to borrowers in a bid to ensure millions of savers do not see their incomes hit.

Beijing's first rate cut in more than two years comes as factory growth stalls and the property market, long a pillar of growth, is weak, dragging on broader activity and curbing demand for everything from furniture to cement and steel.

Many companies have also been struggling with debt, as slowing sales crimp their ability to pay back loans racked up in a nationwide frenzy of borrowing from 2008-2010 when Beijing used economic stimulus to offset the effects of the global financial crisis.

"It will obviously reduce financing pressures for bank borrowers. Typically those are larger companies, state-owned companies, so they're the main beneficiaries of this," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in London.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was cutting one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent. It lowered one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. The changes take effect from Saturday.

European shares and other growth-sensitive commodities all leapt as China's move to cut rates gave markets a welcome lift after a week where data has shown its giant economy faltering.

While the move acknowledged the risks to growth and marks a stepped-up effort to ensure the economy stays on track even as it is expected to slow to a 24-year low of 7.4 percent this year, the central bank took pains to signal that it was not simply moving toward a looser monetary stance.

In a break with earlier practice, it issued a long statement accompanying the announcement explaining the rationale for the policy step, which included giving banks more leeway in setting their own interest rates for depositors and borrowers.

"The problem of difficult financing, costly financing remains glaring in the real economy," the PBOC said, adding that it was especially keen to help smaller firms gain access to credit.

For one-year deposits, banks may now pay depositors 1.2 times the benchmark level, up from 1.1 times previously. It also scrapped limits on interest rates for long-term deposits of five years, and simplified its system of benchmark rates for loans.

LIMITING THE IMPACT

"They are cutting rates and liberalizing rates at the same time so that the stimulus won't be so damaging," said Li Huiyong, an economist at Shenyin and Wanguo Securities.

Recent data showed bank lending tumbled in October and money supply growth cooled, raising fears of a sharper economic slowdown and prompting calls for more stimulus measures, including cutting interest rates.

But many analysts had expected the central bank to hold off on cutting interest rates for now, as authorities have opted instead for measures like more fiscal spending.

The jury is still out on how much the rate cut will actually prompt more lending. The PBOC uses other levers such as reserve requirement ratios to limit the amount of cash banks have on hand to lend out.

However, even simply reducing the debt burden on companies will ease the pressure on many, which could help avert one of the biggest potential risks to the economy - that of bad loans leading to a debt crisis.

While the asymmetrical cut in interest rates - the fall in the lending rate is more than that in the deposit rate - will shave banks' net interest margins, many of the country's lenders appear to be in a position to weather that challenge.

Net interest income after loan-loss provisions at Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS) (1288.HK), China Construction Bank (601939.SS) (0939.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SS) (1398.HK) grew by 12 percent or more during the first nine months of the year, compared with a year earlier.

China's rate move comes after the Bank of Japan sprang a surprise on Oct. 31 by dramatically increasing the pace of its money creation, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi shifted gear on Friday and threw the door wide open to quantitative easing in the euro zone.

"There is definitely more concern around about the state of the global economy than there was a few months ago, you see that not just when you talk about Europe," British finance minister George Osborne told an audience of business leaders in London on Friday.

(This version of the story was refiled to fix wording in second paragraph)

(GNN, Reuters, Aip)(Additional reporting by Jake Spring and Matthew Miller; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill and Mike Collett-White)

China June bank loans beat expectations as Beijing steps on the gas

(GNN) - Beijing stepped up efforts to re-energise China's economy in June and avert a sharper slowdown, pumping more money into the system and pressing banks to extend more loans, but analysts say more stimulus will be needed to ensure a sustained recovery.
Data over the last week offered some signs that the world's second-largest economy steadied in the second quarter as a raft of government stimulus measures kicked in, though exports remained sluggish, putting greater pressure on Beijing to stoke domestic demand.

A cooling property market also points to continued risks in the second half and could well determine the scope and extent of further policy easing, after Premier Li Keqiang vowed recently that the economy would grow by at least the targeted 7.5 percent rate this year.

Chinese banks, which are used by Beijing as a policy tool, made a much stronger-than expected 1.08 trillion yuan ($173.9 billion) of new yuan loans in June, nearly 20 percent more than market expectations, data on Tuesday showed.

Broad M2 money supply jumped 14.7 percent last month from a year earlier - the highest in 10 months, the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website, also higher than a forecast of 13.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists.

"While a fall in short-term lending rates hinted at a higher supply of funds during the month, the money swirling in the market reflects the urgency of the authorities to ramp up economic activity," said Chester Liaw, an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 14 percent from a year ago, slightly better than expectations, while the total social financing aggregate, a broad measure of liquidity in the economy, swelled to 1.97 trillion yuan in June from 1.4 trillion yuan the month before.

"We had previously expected aggregate financing to come in much higher, but still the 1.97 trillion yuan printed as a major upside surprise," Liaw said.

The central bank has pledged to keep credit and money supply growth at a reasonable level to meet the needs of the real economy. It aims for a 13 percent annual rise in M2 this year.

The strong growth in money supply in June "is an explicit loosening of (monetary) conditions. Some of this is seasonal. At the end of the quarter there was demand for cash. And evidently, the authorities supplied it," said Tim Condon, economist at ING Bank in Singapore.

But other economists were more cautious.

"We believe that June's rebound in credit growth has more to do with a weak base for comparison due to the cash crunch last year than with the current policy stance," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

UPBEAT ON EXPORT OUTLOOK

After a shaky start to the year, China's economy has recently shown signs of turning the corner thanks to a series of government stimulus measures, including reserve requirement cuts for some banks and more spending on railways and public housing.

Government spending surged 26.1 percent in June from a year earlier to 1.65 trillion yuan, further reflecting Beijing's determination to revive growth momentum.

However, many economists stress that the rebound looks patchy and believe more policy support may still be needed to counter the broader economic downdraft from the slowing property sector.

China's Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday that export growth should show marked improvement in the second-half of the year compared to the first six months, making it likely that China will achieve its 7.5 percent trade growth target for 2014.

“Our surveys on exporters showed that export firms are showing confidence on trade growth. Therefore, we expect both export and import growth will improve remarkably in the second half than that in the first half," Shen Danyang, ministry spokesman told reporters at the monthly briefing: "If stripping off last year’s high base effect of abnormal trade growth, I think we are able to achieve the 7.5 percent annual trade growth target in 2014 through efforts."

China's trade performance improved in June but still missed market forecasts, while cooler-than-expect inflation readings pointed to lingering sluggishness in the economy.

China's foreign direct investment inflows rose at an annual pace of 2.2 percent in the first six months and were up only modestly for June, reflecting investors' cautiousness over the economic outlook.

The government is due to release second-quarter GDP growth on Wednesday, along with data on fixed-asset investment for the first half and factory output and retail sales for June.

Economists polled by Reuters expected annual GDP growth of 7.4 percent in the second quarter, matching the 18-month low in the first quarter, though Premier Li said last week that growth had improved in April-June.

(Reuters)(GNN - AIP)(Reporting by China economics team; Editing by Kim Coghill)