China central bank scholar sees GDP growth up to 7.3 percent in 2015: Xinhua

(ATimes) - China's economic growth may be as high as 7.3 percent this year, partly due to falling commodity prices, the official Xinhua news agency quoted an academic advisor to the central bank's monetary policy committee as saying on Saturday.

Song Guoqing was also quoted telling a forum that China's consumer price index may rise in 2015 by about 1.6 percent, saying the sharp decline in prices of commodities including crude oil, iron ore and copper presented "a large bonus" for the economy.

Xinhua said Song's views were echoed by Ma Jun, chief economist of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) research bureau.

The central bank had said in a report seen by Reuters in mid-December China's economic growth could slow to 7.1 percent in 2015 from an expected 7.4 percent last year.

China's annual economic growth likely slowed to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the weakest since the depths of the global crisis, a Reuters poll in early January showed, which would keep pressure on policymakers to head off a sharper slowdown this year.

The expected slowdown in growth of the world's second-largest economy, from 7.3 percent in the June-September quarter, means the full-year figure would undershoot the government's 7.5 percent target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years.

China's reform-minded leaders have shown greater tolerance of slower growth, but a further slowdown could fuel job losses and undermine public support for changes.

The PBOC unexpectedly cut interest rates in November for the first time in more than two years, aiming to lower borrowing costs and support growth. Later, it loosened loan restrictions to encourage banks to step up lending.

At the forum, Ma estimated annual gross domestic output growth would increase by 0.12 percentage point if the price of crude oil drops by 10 percent year on year, Xinhua said.

The government is expected to announce fourth-quarter GDP on Jan. 20.

(Reporting by John Ruwitch; Editing by David Holmes)(GA, Reuters, Asia Times)

Mango exports: Pounce while India is still out, says expert

The ban on Indian mangoes by the EU has heightened the concerns of Pakistani mango exporters who might suffer a similar fate, if they fail to comply with the EU regulation standards. PHOTO: FILE

KARACHI: The recent ban on Indian mangoes being exported to the European Union (EU) countries offers a unique opportunity to Pakistan who can pounce and expand their business, Harvest Trading Director and horticulture expert Ahmad Jawad said in a statement.

The EU banned Indian alphonso mangoes and four vegetables from May to December 2015 on grounds that their mangoes were contaminated with non-European fruit flies.

“It is the right time for Pakistani exporters to push their product into high-value European markets so that mango lovers don’t feel a shortfall, especially for the EU where Pakistan has been awarded GSP Plus status,” Jawad said.

With an annual production capacity of around 1.6 million tons, India is the world’s largest mango exporter, selling up to 70,000 tons to overseas markets, according to The Economic Times.

The banning of Indian mangoes by the EU has opened up an opportunity for the Pakistani exporters. It may, however, be a wakeup call at the same time for the latter as both the countries use same technology: Hot Water Treatment (HWT).

“The government and its allied departments should impose strict monitoring of mangoes this year so that we may grab the markets in EU and the United Kingdom,” Jawad said, while talking to a group of journalists in Islamabad – the significance of the EU markets can be judged from the fact that the UK alone imports £6 million worth of mangoes from India, according to The Economic Times.

The controversial ban on Indian mangoes by the EU has heightened the concerns of Pakistani mango exporters who might suffer a similar fate, if they fail to comply with the EU regulation standards.

“The permission may be granted to only those exporters who are prepared to comply with the protocols set by the EU,” the statement quoted Jawad as saying.

The Pakistani mango export industry is promoting the use of HWT and looking after Global Gap Mango farms that have been doing good agriculture practices so that fruit flies and other pests may be destroyed before the shipments are dispatched, the statement read.

In HWT, mangoes go through a thorough cleaning system where they are treated in hot water at temperatures of around 48°C (118.4°F) for approximately an hour. They are then dried, packed and cold treated.

Pakistan’s HWT facility has also been approved by Australia, South Korea, Mauritius, Lebanon, and the facility is open to all in the fresh produce exporting trade.

However, Jawad informed that the country will have to wait to learn if the HWT facility satisfies authorities in the UK and EU.

The statement further said that the impact of the ban of Indian mangoes has turned into a controversy not only in India but also in the EU.

Many importers, retailers, growers and politicians have branded the prohibition as a punitive and over-reactionary measure and started active lobbying against it. They have even filed an e-petition to the concerned authorities for the reversal, the statement said.

Published in GNN & Tribune & Our Correspondent, May 6th, 2014.